Parent Layer: Western_Great_Plains_Sand_Prairie

Name: NS02a_Change_in_Suitability.lyr

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Description: Niche models can be used to evaluate the change in climatic suitability of a location between two time periods, to assess the degree to which changing climate may stress or favor the local occurrence of a given vegetation type (here defined as a NatureServe terrestrial ecological system, Comer et al. 2003). For each vegetation type, for each pixel, we used a Random Forest (RF) bioclimatic envelope model to generate an index of niche exposure. The index of niche exposure for a given vegetation type characterizes the difference in modeled bioclimate suitability between two time periods: baseline (1948-1980) and current (1981-2014). The range of possible values is -1 to 1. Negative values represent areas that are decreasing in suitability (values for probability of suitable climate are higher in the baseline than in the current), 0 is no change (values for probability of suitable bioclimate between current and baseline are the same), and positive values represent areas increasing in suitability (values for probability of suitable bioclimate in the current are higher than in the baseline). Niche delta values are calculated within the geographic range of the vegetation type to focus on areas of potential climate stress and stability within a types’ known distribution.Comer, P., D. Faber-Langendoen, R. Evans, S. Gawler, C. Josse, G. Kittel, S. Menard, M. Pyne, M. Reid, K. Schulz, K. Snow, and J. Teague. 2003. Ecological systems of the United States: A working classification of U.S. terrestrial systems. NatureServe, Arlington, VA.

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Copyright Text: NatureServe

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